青いblog

From the Seattle Mariners Message Board

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Sox
Josh Beckett
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Isn't going anywhere.

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Bronson Arroyo
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Is a 4th starter. Not a terrible pitcher, really, but I am scared by his K/9 rate dropoff from 2004 (7.15) to 2005 (4.38). He's a flyball pitcher, which means he'd probably do well in SafeCo. He's lights out against righties, but gets owned by lefties. While his home / away splits don't look much different, the OPBA and OPSLG% are significantly higher at Fenway. Should be fairly obvious as to why (15 HR given up at home in 19 games, only 7 on the road in 15). I could see Arroyo being a slightly above average starting pitcher if he were to find another home.

Would I get him?: Sure.
Who would I give up: Bobby Livingston and we take his full contract.

Relatively cheap idea for someone who has shown he has good peripherals, albeit a bad GO:AO ratio. In SafeCo, though, that flyball tendency might not be so bad for him. Livingston isn't really that big a deal as a prospect. If the Red Sox asked for someone else, I might send another prospect, but it would depend on whom. Sox are starving for outfielders, so maybe TJ Bohn.

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Curt Schilling
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Isn't going anywhere. I don't want him anyway.

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Wade Miller
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An interesting idea. Miller was someone I wanted the Mariners to pick up last offseason because I was relatively sure he was going to come cheap (1.5 mill in 2005). Miller's biggest drawbacks were that he was coming off an injury that kept him sidelined for most of 2004 and 2005, and a horrible bout with control problems. His K/9 was above 7 for the NL, above 6 in Boston last year, and his GO:AO was historically favored towards groundball tendencies, though since the injury he has evened out quite a bit. Miller's control problems existed before the injury, and only got worse in 2005. He was walking 3 people every 9 innings before, and over four and a half last season. He also throws way too many pitches per inning, which is natural considering he walks too many people.

Would I get him?: Sure. He's a risk, but high reward.
Who would I give up?: Probably a couple of A-ballers. Maybe Julio Mateo and an A-baller. Depends on what the Red Sox need.

If Miller can return to pre-2004 injury form, and his K/9 seems to indicate he can, then I would take a risk on him.

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John Papelbon
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Prospect, they wont trade him anytime soon.

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David Wells
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I would take David Wells. He's getting up there in years, but if I could have him for next season and that's it, I'd take him. This is, however, someone I would sign as a free agent and not as a trade. Giving up any prospects for a "Rent A Pitcher" is a bad idea.

Would I get him?: No
What would I give up?: I would pay cash for him, but wouldn't trade a single prospect.

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Tim Wakefield
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Yes I would. At the very least having a knuckleballer around provides you with some variety and stability at the starting pitching position. You're talking about someone who can go an entire 9 innings, even if he's getting shelled, to give your bullpen a break. Knuckleballers are huge for Managers to allow them to really manage the pitching staff. Wakefield just happens to be a pretty good knuckleballer too, so it's not as if you'd only be getting him for the sake of having a wiffle ball thrower, you'd actually be able to win when he's around.

Would I get him?: Yes.
What would I give up?: Not much, I really don't think the Red Sox are going to trade him. They know as well as I do how much use a knuckleballer can be.

Yes, Wakefield will be 40 next season. Nobody cares. If he can still throw a knuckleball, he can throw until he's 50. He also seems to be getting better with age, refining his knuckleball a little more to make it dance around. I wouldn't keep him for long, but he'd be a very useful stopgap.

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Matt Clement
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In a heartbeat. Power pitcher with a strong groundball tendency. Was bothered a bit by injury this year, and his K/9 naturally fell moving to the AL, but he's still a very good pitcher who needs to get out of Fenway.

Would I get him?: Yep.
Who would I give up?: This would probably have to involve at least 3 minor leaguers, or one major league ready player / regular and one prospect. I would also take on his contract, just so we wouldn't have to give up more then we had to.

Moving on.

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Yanks
Big Unit
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Keep dreaming.

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Mike Mussina
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Heck no. Mussina is falling down the downward curve of his career faster then you can say "Can he last 5 innings?". The Moose is done and will be a bullpen pitcher by the end of 2006.

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Carl Pavano
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You want to know what the Mariners like about Pavano? Here's the secret:

He's a good groundball pitcher (not great, but above average)
He's got an average (at best) K/9 but...
He's got a very good BB/9
Check his home / away splits, especially what he does against right handed batters.

That guy needs to get out of New York, bad.

Would I get him?: Yep.
What would I give up?: Four of our worst prospects. Heck, I'll throw in Willie Bloomquist.

I refuse to trade anybody meaningful to New York.

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Jaret Wright
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No. Jaret Wright was overrated before the Yankees got him. Now he's an injured, overrated, overpayed, dead weight.

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Shawn Chacon
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The Yankee love affair with Shawn Chacon boggles my mind. What boggles me even more is how he managed to pull an ERA under 4 when he's walking 3.42 batters / 9 and only striking out 4.5 batters / 9 and maintaining a very averge 1.01 GO:AO ratio. How he managed to hold batters to a mere .225 average and .348 SLG%, only giving up 7 homeruns in 107 flyballs (only 6.5%, league average is about 12%) is even more astounding.

Shawn Chacon is going to implode next year, the Yankee love affair will end, and the Yankees will wish they hung onto a few more starters.

Would I get him?: No. An emphatic no.
What would I give up?: A pair of windshield wiper blades.

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Aaron Small
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See Shawn Chacon. Aaron Small should implode next year too.

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Chien-Ming Wang
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Oh you bet I'd snag Chien-Ming Wang. But since he aint going anywhere, lets just skip this one.

So there you go, who I would get and who I wouldn't get and who wont be going anywhere. Take it for what you will, I'm 0 for the world this offseason in prospective moves / trades.